本輪(lun)供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)沖擊的(de)廣(guang)度和深度均(jun)超預期。一方面體現(xian)為資源再配置導(dao)致勞動市場短期出現(xian)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需錯配，另一方面則(ze)是供(gong)(gong)(gong)應鏈(lian)問(wen)題持(chi)續(xu)發(fa)酵，加上(shang)企業治理(li)思維的(de)轉變，供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)彈(dan)性(xing)總體上(shang)出現(xian)超越短期的(de)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降。資源再配置將(jiang)在中長(chang)(chang)期內改善經(jing)濟增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)可持(chi)續(xu)性(xing)，但供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)彈(dan)性(xing)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降在未(wei)來數(shu)月甚至更長(chang)(chang)一段時(shi)間內繼續(xu)支撐物價，限制增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。此外，供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)沖擊導(dao)致的(de)成本上(shang)升或不利于緩解(jie)疫情(qing)帶(dai)來的(de)債務(wu)負擔，亦(yi)限制下(xia)(xia)(xia)半年(nian)的(de)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)空間。這種情(qing)況下(xia)(xia)(xia)，宏觀政策將(jiang)呈現(xian)“緊信(xin)用、松貨幣、寬(kuan)財(cai)政”的(de)組合(he)。

　　供給(gei)沖(chong)(chong)(chong)擊(ji)的一個重要(yao)體(ti)現是(shi)資(zi)源(yuan)再配(pei)置(zhi)短期(qi)帶來(lai)勞動(dong)(dong)市場供需(xu)(xu)錯(cuo)配(pei)。供給(gei)沖(chong)(chong)(chong)擊(ji)較(jiao)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)沖(chong)(chong)(chong)擊(ji)更容易導(dao)致資(zi)源(yuan)或要(yao)素再配(pei)置(zhi)，近期(qi)A股不同板塊的員工人(ren)數增(zeng)速分化明(ming)顯，民(min)工就業半徑也較(jiao)疫情之前縮小(xiao)，表(biao)明(ming)我(wo)國勞動(dong)(dong)力正經(jing)歷行業與(yu)(yu)區域再配(pei)置(zhi)。中(zhong)低端勞動(dong)(dong)力市場求(qiu)人(ren)倍率和失業率同時上升(sheng)，民(min)工職業培訓比率創多(duo)年新高，均表(biao)明(ming)勞動(dong)(dong)市場供需(xu)(xu)錯(cuo)配(pei)已經(jing)顯現。美國勞動(dong)(dong)力再配(pei)置(zhi)效應較(jiao)2008年次債危機(ji)后更為顯著(zhu)，而(er)供給(gei)沖(chong)(chong)(chong)擊(ji)疊加財政(zheng)刺激亦導(dao)致其勞動(dong)(dong)市場供需(xu)(xu)錯(cuo)配(pei)比我(wo)國更為顯著(zhu)，勞動(dong)(dong)參與(yu)(yu)率也較(jiao)其他主(zhu)要(yao)經(jing)濟(ji)體(ti)下降更多(duo)。

　　供(gong)(gong)(gong)給沖擊的另(ling)一個重要(yao)體(ti)現是供(gong)(gong)(gong)應鏈(lian)問題(ti)持續發酵。主要(yao)經(jing)濟體(ti)生(sheng)(sheng)產受阻，供(gong)(gong)(gong)應配送時(shi)間(jian)(jian)亦不斷延(yan)長(chang)，美國主要(yao)港(gang)口的出(chu)口空(kong)箱比(bi)率創25年新高，其(qi)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應配送時(shi)間(jian)(jian)今(jin)年年底(di)仍可能較去年同期長(chang)70%-160%。我國對海(hai)外供(gong)(gong)(gong)應鏈(lian)依賴靠(kao)前的行業有計算機、電(dian)子及光學(xue)、汽(qi)車制造、焦(jiao)炭生(sheng)(sheng)產和(he)精煉石油產品、基本金屬(shu)制造、化學(xue)原料及化學(xue)制品，橡膠和(he)塑(su)料制品等。研究表明，這些產品的海(hai)外供(gong)(gong)(gong)給多數處于歷史分位數的65%-90%，而我國國內(nei)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應商交貨時(shi)間(jian)(jian)近期也進一步延(yan)長(chang)，均意味著供(gong)(gong)(gong)應鏈(lian)問題(ti)短期內(nei)或難以緩解。

　　勞動市場摩擦和(he)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應鏈(lian)受(shou)阻共同降(jiang)(jiang)低(di)了供(gong)(gong)(gong)給彈(dan)性(xing)，而(er)企業治(zhi)理思(si)維的(de)轉(zhuan)變表明供(gong)(gong)(gong)給彈(dan)性(xing)下降(jiang)(jiang)可(ke)能(neng)是(shi)新(xin)常(chang)態而(er)非曇花一(yi)現(xian)。疫(yi)情(qing)導致數(shu)字(zi)經濟(ji)加(jia)速發(fa)展，部分(fen)無接觸經濟(ji)的(de)供(gong)(gong)(gong)給彈(dan)性(xing)因(yin)此而(er)上升，但破(po)壞快于(yu)創新(xin)，供(gong)(gong)(gong)給沖擊總體上導致供(gong)(gong)(gong)給彈(dan)性(xing)下降(jiang)(jiang)。其中偏上游的(de)行業由于(yu)對海外投入品(pin)的(de)依賴度較(jiao)高，疊加(jia)國(guo)內(nei)環保和(he)碳達峰對產能(neng)的(de)約束，供(gong)(gong)(gong)給彈(dan)性(xing)較(jiao)疫(yi)情(qing)前明顯下降(jiang)(jiang)。疫(yi)情(qing)導致企業治(zhi)理從之前主要(yao)注(zhu)重效率往(wang)兼顧安全(quan)轉(zhuan)變，供(gong)(gong)(gong)應鏈(lian)縮(suo)短和(he)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應商(shang)多元化推(tui)升成(cheng)本，供(gong)(gong)(gong)給彈(dan)性(xing)的(de)下降(jiang)(jiang)或將成(cheng)為新(xin)常(chang)態。

　　展望未(wei)來，經濟(ji)面臨(lin)兩大(da)主要矛盾，即成本上(shang)升和償債(zhai)壓力，從供給與需求兩端限制經濟(ji)增長。我們預(yu)計(ji)2-4季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)GDP同比(bi)(bi)增速或(huo)為7.6%、5.8%、5.0%，全年(nian)或(huo)達(da)8.5%左(zuo)右(you)。基準情(qing)形(xing)下(xia)，PPI仍將維持(chi)較高(gao)水平，2-4季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)PPI同比(bi)(bi)或(huo)分(fen)別為8.0%、8.5%和7.6%，全年(nian)同比(bi)(bi)達(da)6.5%左(zuo)右(you)，2-4季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)CPI同比(bi)(bi)或(huo)為1.3%、1.7%和2.8%，全年(nian)1.5%左(zuo)右(you)。成本上(shang)升或(huo)侵蝕某(mou)些企(qi)業的盈利，增加非金融部門的債(zhai)務償還難度(du)(du)。我們預(yu)計(ji)宏觀政策組合(he)是，緊信用的背(bei)景(jing)下(xia)，貨(huo)幣(bi)支持(chi)財政發揮更大(da)作用，包括普惠金融等準財政行(xing)為。